It’s difficult to gauge the precise impact of politics and the economic crisis on the Scottish residential and commercial property market for both selling and letting.
But the financial tumult has scarred the area as it has every other corner of the globe. The economic wounds are perhaps especially evident in Scotland where the crucial Glenrothes by-election is looming, where the cry for independence has grown and where Alex Salmond’s buoyant SNP has gained ground.
As the dust settles, though it is still far from settled, witness the continuing volatility on the world stock markets - Scottish nationalist issues have been brought into sharp focus.
Scotland’s reputation for financial probity has been questioned and the near extinction of the RBS and HBOS strikes at the heart of Scottish Nationalist economic policies.
The well-being of the banks is vital for Scottish employment, the social and cultural activities of Scotland, the building and construction industry and the health of the commercial and residential property market.
Given that financial independence for Scotland rests to a considerable degree on the price of oil – which is currently falling ( just 68 dollars a barrel today) and a thriving business sector aided and abetted by a robust banking and administration industry – the policies begin to look somewhat fragile.
The reality is that the bail out could only have been achieved by the collective financial muscle of a united – rather than a fragmented kingdom.
The banks will now be controlled from London not Edinburgh. With nationalisation of the banks – and thus a great chunk of the City – Westminster Rules OK.
There’s been speculation about an ‘arc of prosperity’ stretching from Scotland to embrace Ireland, Iceland and Norway. It’s a romantic but increasingly unrealistic notion.
Each ‘arc’ nation has difficulties. Ireland is in recession. Iceland’s economy is in despair. Norway has a level of taxation which would be unacceptable in Scotland. Norway is often touted as a working model of what an independent Scotland might look like. But Norway is being bailed out for almost £3billion by the US Federal reserve.
As far as property is concerned – like everywhere else - prices in Scotland have fallen. But the renting and letting market could be affected by rising unemployment.
With many economists predicting unemployment will exceed 2 million by early next year – some say by Christmas – the axe might fall heavily in Scotland and there could be an increased drift to the south of people looking for work, and for somewhere to live.
Prices being higher in the south – and though they have dropped there is still disparity between average prices in the north and the south – it is likely that jobseekers will, at least to start with, look for a residential property, be it a flat or house, to rent.
This will add to what is already a strong market for landlords and estate agents in London and other areas where job prospects are at their most promising. And this is certain to further increase business for fleet-footed and innovative property companies such as fledgeling company thelettingSite.co.uk which is already being swamped by landlords and letting agents keen to promote their properties on this free website.
A rumour – entirely unsubstantiated – is that councils on the coast in England are to suggest that lucrative defence contracts at Faslane and on the Clyde in Scotland be switched to their seaboard.
This might bring into the frame Great Yarmouth, say, in the east - where a deep water port is presently being constructed – or perhaps Portsmouth in the south.
If Scotland ever did break from the Union Westminster could think of switching defence contracts. The ramifications on employment and property would be immense.
The mind boggles. But it is only rumour. And currently the City is swarming with those.
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